Forecasting future market revenues.
In addition to the energy yield of a wind farm, power market revenues are increasingly relevant for project evaluation and investment decisions. Our Revenue Report provides investors with important information regarding a project’s financial performance beyond the purely energy-focused wind yield report.
A Revenue Report is prepared for a particular wind project. It is site- and technology-specific with a focus on future price developments. The report determines the expected financial revenues of a wind farm as well as revenue differences between different wind turbine types. It also provides an estimate of the revenue reduction in comparison to the forecasted national market value (M0). This difference has to be considered for the determination of a reasonable bid price in the RES auction to avoid financial underperformance of the project.
Impact on wind turbine choice
Power prices are usually high when wind feed-in is low and tend to fall in times of high wind feed-in. Investors who analyze this correlation systematically are able to financially optimize their wind projects: a Revenue Report provides investors with the necessary information to optimize revenues by comparing market revenues of different turbine technologies at the same site. This helps to select the turbine type with the best market value and the highest return.
Optimization of bid prices – Decrease of market values
According to the French direct marketing scheme a Feed-In-Premium is disbursed on top of the monthly national market value. Optimizing the revenue for a particular project therefore requires a profound knowledge of the site-specific revenues compared to the relevant price index. This estimation must also take into account future developments of the French power market. The next figure shows the schematic development of the site-specific market values of a wind turbine (WTG 1) at two different sites A and B and for the different turbine types 1 and 2 at the same site A.
The figure illustrates that a revenue Report provides the information required for choosing an optimal turbine type (comparison of WTG 1 vs. WTG 2) and a site that provides maximum revenues. Furthermore, the Revenue Report delivers a forecast not only for French power prices but for the expected power market revenues of the analyzed wind farm.
Methodology of Market Value Atlas and Revenue Report
The Market Value Atlas and Revenue Report combine time series of energy production and simultaneous prices at the power exchange with a very high spatial and chronological resolution. They rely either on historical data (market Value Atlas) or on scenarios for future market developments (Revenue Report) which fully account for the fluctuating characteristics of renewable energy.
To deliver analyses of the highest quality, enervis and anemos combine their long-standing expertise in energy markets and wind power meteorology and bring together high-resolution wind- and power market-models for the French and German wind market.